Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds12
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints33
- Caris LeVertAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–113
- Q47.0shot clock turnover125–113
- Q431.0Evan Mobley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)125–113
- Q433.0Isaac Okoro offensive rebound125–110
- Q435.1Isaac Okoro misses two point shot125–110
- Q446.0Bruce Brown makes layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)125–110
- Q41:03Tyrese Haliburton defensive rebound123–110
- Q41:06Caris LeVert misses 15-foot pullup jump shot123–110
- Q41:15Myles Turner makes 13-foot two point shot123–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:51Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan Thompson assists)IND 93 – 92 CLE · CLE 30% → 42% +12CLE 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q410:35Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)IND 96 – 92 CLE · IND 58% → 71% +12IND 58% → 71%+12 pts
- Q44:08Evan Mobley makes dunk (Max Strus assists)IND 109 – 107 CLE · CLE 22% → 34% +12CLE 22% → 34%+12 pts
- Q43:43Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 112 – 107 CLE · IND 67% → 84% +17IND 67% → 84%+17 pts
- Q43:13Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three pointerIND 115 – 108 CLE · IND 80% → 93% +12IND 80% → 93%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 60%
- Fair odds
- IND -139
- CLE +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 115.3 – 112.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | −36 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +69 Elo | IND 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30143.0 | Points scored | 109.517th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 110.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+23.0 | Margin | −1.015th of 30 |
| 1st of 30126.5 | Offense rating | 106.018th of 30 |
| 12th of 30106.2 | Defense rating | 106.915th of 30 |
| 1st of 30113.0 | Pace | 103.114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Pacers: last 1