Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Josh GiddeyAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds13
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints43
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–105
- Q40.0Donovan Mitchell lost ball turnover (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)108–105
- Q44.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2108–105
- Q44.1Luguentz Dort enters the game for Josh Giddey107–105
- Q44.1Georges Niang enters the game for Dean Wade107–105
- Q44.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2107–105
- Q44.1Dean Wade personal foul106–105
- Q46.1Isaiah Joe enters the game for Aaron Wiggins106–105
- Q46.1Josh Giddey enters the game for Luguentz Dort106–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:54Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot step back jumpshotOKC 90 – 91 CLE · OKC 27% → 43% +16OKC 27% → 43%+16 pts
- Q44:32Caris LeVert makes three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)OKC 90 – 96 CLE · CLE 70% → 85% +15CLE 70% → 85%+15 pts
- Q41:16Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 99 – 102 CLE · OKC 3% → 17% +14OKC 3% → 17%+14 pts
- Q41:03Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 102 – 102 CLE · OKC 14% → 50% +35OKC 14% → 50%+35 pts
- Q428.1Luguentz Dort makes driving floating jump shot (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 104 – 102 CLE · OKC 50% → 85% +35OKC 50% → 85%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -108
- OKC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.3 – 113.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −4 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +1 Elo | CLE 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30124.0 | Points scored | 114.011th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.0 | Points allowed | 113.017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+20.0 | Margin | +1.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30123.5 | Offense rating | 114.77th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.6 | Defense rating | 113.722nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Thunder: last 1