Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints51
- DeMar DeRozanAssists4
- Zach LaVineRebounds5
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–118
- Q41.0shot clock turnover102–118
- Q425.1Dalen Terry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)102–118
- Q442.1Stanley Umude enters the game for Isaiah Stewart99–118
- Q442.1Marvin Bagley III enters the game for Killian Hayes99–118
- Q442.1Jaden Ivey enters the game for Cade Cunningham99–118
- Q442.1Marcus Sasser enters the game for Jalen Duren99–118
- Q442.1Killian Hayes personal take foul99–118
- Q444.1Killian Hayes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)99–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:33DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2CHI 55 – 60 DET · CHI 20% → 30% +10CHI 20% → 30%+10 pts
- Q36:21Cade Cunningham makes 28-foot step back jumpshotCHI 63 – 69 DET · DET 65% → 74% +9DET 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q36:12Nikola Vucevic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)CHI 66 – 69 DET · CHI 26% → 35% +9CHI 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q33:27Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three pointerCHI 71 – 77 DET · CHI 17% → 25% +8CHI 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q30.0Jaden Ivey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)CHI 77 – 84 DET · DET 70% → 80% +10DET 70% → 80%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Fair odds
- DET -138
- CHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.3 – 113.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −15 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +78 Elo | DET 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30104.0 | Points scored | 106.522nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 101.04th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +5.58th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.8 | Offense rating | 103.422nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 98.15th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.9 | Pace | 102.816th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Bulls: last 2