Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints27
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists8
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds14
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Jamal MurrayAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–110
- Q47.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound102–110
- Q49.2Lauri Markkanen misses 24-foot three point jumper102–110
- Q411.1Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Walker Kessler102–110
- Q411.1Jazz Full timeout102–110
- Q411.1Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2102–110
- Q411.1Nuggets offensive team rebound102–109
- Q411.1Aaron Gordon misses free throw 1 of 2102–109
- Q411.1John Collins personal foul102–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:28Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)UTAH 74 – 82 DEN · UTAH 6% → 12% +5UTAH 6% → 12%+5 pts
- Q410:08Christian Braun makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)UTAH 74 – 85 DEN · DEN 88% → 94% +5DEN 88% → 94%+5 pts
- Q49:43Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 77 – 85 DEN · UTAH 6% → 11% +5UTAH 6% → 11%+5 pts
- Q49:07Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)UTAH 80 – 85 DEN · UTAH 11% → 19% +8UTAH 11% → 19%+8 pts
- Q48:42Nikola Jokic makes two point shot (Christian Braun assists)UTAH 80 – 87 DEN · DEN 81% → 87% +6DEN 81% → 87%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Fair odds
- DEN -273
- UTAH +273 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.0 – 117.7 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −8 | +149 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +212 Elo | DEN 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 118.38th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.7 | Points allowed | 102.02nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−12.0 | Margin | +16.33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 118.33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.4 | Defense rating | 102.04th of 30 |
| 17th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.924th of 30 |
| 19th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+149 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.