Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints19
- Collin SextonAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds10
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints26
- Kevin DurantAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–126
- Q422.1Omer Yurtseven makes hook shot (Collin Sexton assists)104–126
- Q437.1Saben Lee makes dunk (Chimezie Metu assists)102–126
- Q440.1Chimezie Metu defensive rebound102–124
- Q442.1Simone Fontecchio misses 24-foot three point jumper102–124
- Q443.1Collin Sexton offensive rebound102–124
- Q445.1Kris Dunn misses two point shot102–124
- Q451.1Luka Samanic defensive rebound102–124
- Q453.0Chimezie Metu misses hook shot102–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:04Eric Gordon makes 29-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)UTAH 4 – 3 PHX · PHX 49% → 55% +6PHX 49% → 55%+6 pts
- Q19:21Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)UTAH 4 – 8 PHX · PHX 59% → 65% +6PHX 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q18:47Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 7 – 9 PHX · UTAH 31% → 39% +8UTAH 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q12:58Jordan Goodwin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Drew Eubanks assists)UTAH 19 – 27 PHX · PHX 68% → 74% +6PHX 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q210:01Eric Gordon makes 30-foot running pullup jump shotUTAH 32 – 40 PHX · PHX 68% → 74% +6PHX 68% → 74%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 59%
- Fair odds
- PHX -135
- UTAH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.0 – 114.3 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −8 | −21 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +60 Elo | PHX 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 101.528th of 30 |
| 28th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 102.05th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.0 | Margin | −0.515th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 97.430th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.1 | Defense rating | 97.94th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.4 | Pace | 104.010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.