LA Clippers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints36
- Kawhi LeonardAssists5
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints35
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists8
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q40.1Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound118–120
- Q40.1Russell Westbrook misses 18-foot jumper118–120
- Q41.1Russell Westbrook offensive rebound118–120
- Q44.1Kawhi Leonard misses 25-foot three point jumper118–120
- Q428.2Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot three pointer (Lauri Markkanen assists)118–120
- Q441.0Talen Horton-Tucker enters the game for Kris Dunn118–117
- Q441.0Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2118–117
- Q441.0Robert Covington enters the game for Norman Powell117–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:45Kelly Olynyk makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 109 – 111 UTAH · UTAH 44% → 66% +22UTAH 44% → 66%+22 pts
- Q41:51Kris Dunn makes 4-foot dunk (Jordan Clarkson assists)LAC 113 – 115 UTAH · UTAH 51% → 71% +20UTAH 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q41:06Paul George makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 116 – 115 UTAH · LAC 24% → 63% +39LAC 24% → 63%+39 pts
- Q446.0Lauri Markkanen makes tip shotLAC 116 – 117 UTAH · UTAH 35% → 66% +32UTAH 35% → 66%+32 pts
- Q428.2Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot three pointer (Lauri Markkanen assists)LAC 118 – 120 UTAH · UTAH 30% → 86% +55UTAH 30% → 86%+55 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -0.5
- UTAH 52%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -119
- LAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.5 – 114.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −6 | LAC: Usual rotation · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +15 Elo | UTAH 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30123.0 | Points scored | 114.014th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 130.029th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+12.0 | Margin | −16.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30121.5 | Offense rating | 108.915th of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 124.129th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.4 | Pace | 105.29th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Clippers: last 1