Portland Trail Blazers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Malcolm BrogdonPoints20
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints27
- Russell WestbrookAssists13
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–123
- Q412.2Jabari Walker lost ball turnover (Moussa Diabate steals)111–123
- Q422.1Jordan Miller makes driving dunk111–123
- Q436.0Scoot Henderson makes driving layup111–121
- Q441.1Amir Coffey makes free throw 2 of 2109–121
- Q441.1Amir Coffey makes free throw 1 of 2109–120
- Q441.1Shaedon Sharpe personal foul109–119
- Q453.1Scoot Henderson makes pullup jump shot109–119
- Q41:00shot clock turnover107–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:00Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)POR 4 – 9 LAC · LAC 59% → 65% +6LAC 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q130.2Malcolm Brogdon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 20 – 26 LAC · POR 26% → 32% +6POR 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q11.2Bones Hyland makes 26-foot step back jumpshotPOR 20 – 29 LAC · LAC 68% → 74% +6LAC 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q211:11Russell Westbrook makes 28-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)POR 22 – 32 LAC · LAC 70% → 76% +6LAC 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q27:50Paul George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)POR 33 – 45 LAC · LAC 75% → 81% +6LAC 75% → 81%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 55%
- Fair odds
- LAC -123
- POR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 112.9 – 114.4 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | LAC +36 Elo | LAC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.