Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints28
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints19
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Ousmane DiengRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–95
- Q421.1Braxton Key defensive rebound128–95
- Q425.1Tre Mann misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot128–95
- Q434.1Julian Strawther makes 26-foot three pointer128–95
- Q440.1Julian Strawther defensive rebound125–95
- Q443.1Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot125–95
- Q41:02Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound125–95
- Q41:05Julian Strawther misses 25-foot three point jumper125–95
- Q41:24Tre Mann makes 2-foot two point shot (Ousmane Dieng assists)125–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:56Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DEN 4 – 3 OKC · OKC 34% → 40% +6OKC 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q16:08Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 18 – 11 OKC · DEN 66% → 72% +6DEN 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q120.0Aaron Wiggins makes driving layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DEN 31 – 23 OKC · OKC 20% → 26% +5OKC 20% → 26%+5 pts
- Q13.1Reggie Jackson makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 34 – 23 OKC · DEN 74% → 80% +5DEN 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q25:09Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 52 – 43 OKC · DEN 71% → 78% +6DEN 71% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 57%
- Fair odds
- DEN -139
- OKC +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.2 – 111.8 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +114 | +18 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +50 Elo | DEN 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 116.09th of 30 |
| 8th of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 104.57th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+8.0 | Margin | +11.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 10th of 30104.6 | Defense rating | 100.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+114 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Nuggets: last 2