Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints25
- Jamal MurrayAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints24
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–110
- Q40.1shot clock turnover89–110
- Q424.1Troy Brown Jr. defensive rebound89–110
- Q426.1Julian Strawther misses 26-foot three point jumper89–110
- Q431.1Jalen Pickett defensive rebound89–110
- Q434.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 26-foot three point jumper89–110
- Q437.2Troy Brown Jr. defensive rebound89–110
- Q439.2Braxton Key misses layup89–110
- Q454.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)89–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:33Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)DEN 11 – 23 MIN · MIN 54% → 61% +7MIN 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q28:45Zeke Nnaji makes 25-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 30 – 37 MIN · DEN 40% → 47% +7DEN 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q27:41Kyle Anderson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)DEN 32 – 40 MIN · MIN 48% → 56% +8MIN 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q26:31Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)DEN 32 – 45 MIN · MIN 62% → 69% +7MIN 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q37:11Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 59 – 72 MIN · DEN 15% → 21% +6DEN 15% → 21%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5
- DEN 70%
- Fair odds
- DEN -205
- MIN +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.6 – 109.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +151 | +2 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +146 Elo | DEN 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 104.326th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30102.0 | Points allowed | 104.76th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+14.3 | Margin | −0.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 104.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.5 | Defense rating | 104.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.4 | Pace | 100.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 292–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+151 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.