Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints31
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints41
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–127
- Q45.2shot clock turnover113–127
- Q429.2Josh Minott makes driving layup113–127
- Q442.2Luka Garza defensive rebound111–127
- Q445.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 12-foot two point shot111–127
- Q452.1Hawks offensive team rebound111–127
- Q452.1Jordan McLaughlin blocks Kobe Bufkin 's 8-foot driving layup111–127
- Q41:04Luka Garza makes 6-foot two point shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)111–127
- Q41:11Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Shake Milton109–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:21AJ Griffin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)MIN 23 – 24 ATL · ATL 44% → 53% +9ATL 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q33:20Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIN 93 – 84 ATL · MIN 71% → 79% +9MIN 71% → 79%+9 pts
- Q31:14Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)MIN 97 – 93 ATL · ATL 25% → 35% +10ATL 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q34.0Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 98 – 98 ATL · ATL 38% → 50% +12ATL 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q49:30Trae Young makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 98 – 107 ATL · ATL 76% → 86% +9ATL 76% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ATL 51%
- Fair odds
- ATL -103
- MIN +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.7 – 113.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | +21 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone and ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +5 Elo | ATL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30100.0 | Points scored | 119.06th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3093.5 | Points allowed | 117.322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+6.5 | Margin | +1.715th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.7 | Offense rating | 112.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 3092.3 | Defense rating | 110.720th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.4 | Pace | 105.85th of 30 |
| 18th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.