Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints20
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints26
- Damian LillardAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–110
- Q413.0AJ Green makes 24-foot three point jumper127–110
- Q424.0Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound127–107
- Q428.0Mouhamed Gueye misses three point jumper127–107
- Q448.0Thanasis Antetokounmpo kicked ball turnover127–107
- Q451.1Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound127–107
- Q455.1Kobe Bufkin misses 25-foot three point jumper127–107
- Q41:02Kobe Bufkin offensive rebound127–107
- Q41:06Bruno Fernando misses 26-foot three point jumper127–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:41Brook Lopez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jae Crowder assists)ATL 12 – 7 MIL · MIL 38% → 44% +6MIL 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q14:21Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 23-foot three point shot (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 21 – 11 MIL · ATL 61% → 67% +6ATL 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q28:44Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)ATL 33 – 32 MIL · MIL 45% → 52% +8MIL 45% → 52%+8 pts
- Q28:30Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 36 – 32 MIL · ATL 48% → 55% +8ATL 48% → 55%+8 pts
- Q27:16Jalen Johnson makes dunk (Saddiq Bey assists)ATL 43 – 33 MIL · ATL 63% → 70% +7ATL 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1.5
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -125
- ATL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.2 – 115.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | −21 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 117.022nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−6.0 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
| 14th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 114.58th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 113.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 30105.9 | Pace | 103.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 270–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 28 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Hawks: last 2