Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds7
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints39
- Damian LillardAssists4
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [76ers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)117–118
- Q40.1De'Anthony Melton makes 26-foot three point shot117–118
- Q41.1De'Anthony Melton offensive rebound114–118
- Q43.1Joel Embiid misses 26-foot three point jumper114–118
- Q411.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2114–118
- Q411.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2114–117
- Q411.1De'Anthony Melton enters the game for P.J. Tucker114–116
- Q411.1(00:11.5) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [76ers] charged with a timeout114–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:49Kelly Oubre Jr. makes dunkPHI 100 – 94 MIL · PHI 58% → 76% +18PHI 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q45:40Jae Crowder makes 28-foot three point shot (Malik Beasley assists)PHI 102 – 100 MIL · MIL 24% → 40% +16MIL 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q43:57Damian Lillard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)PHI 104 – 105 MIL · MIL 37% → 59% +21MIL 37% → 59%+21 pts
- Q41:29Joel Embiid makes 12-foot jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 111 – 113 MIL · PHI 11% → 27% +16PHI 11% → 27%+16 pts
- Q41:13Damian Lillard makes 30-foot step back jumpshotPHI 111 – 116 MIL · MIL 75% → 95% +20MIL 75% → 95%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1.5
- MIL 55%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 112.9 – 114.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
No earlier games in the window.