Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints22
- Kyle LowryAssists7
- Nikola JovicRebounds11
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints25
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–106
- Q45.0Dru Smith makes layup (Nikola Jovic assists)90–106
- Q413.2Nikola Jovic defensive rebound88–106
- Q415.1Jordan McLaughlin misses driving layup88–106
- Q430.0Cole Swider makes 24-foot three point shot (Nikola Jovic assists)88–106
- Q433.1Nikola Jovic defensive rebound85–106
- Q436.1Orlando Robinson blocks Leonard Miller 's 2-foot layup85–106
- Q456.1Cole Swider makes dunk85–106
- Q458.0Cole Swider defensive rebound83–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:11Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 58 – 59 MIN · MIA 30% → 39% +9MIA 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q36:57Nikola Jovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 62 – 63 MIN · MIA 30% → 39% +9MIA 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q36:16Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 65 – 65 MIN · MIA 33% → 43% +10MIA 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q35:59Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIA 65 – 68 MIN · MIN 57% → 67% +10MIN 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q34:47Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 70 – 68 MIN · MIA 40% → 50% +10MIA 40% → 50%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 62%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.7 – 114.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | −16 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +86 Elo | MIN 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 94.030th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 97.03rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.5 | Margin | −3.018th of 30 |
| 16th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 89.230th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 92.11st of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 105.49th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Heat: last 2