Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints28
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Kevin LoveRebounds9
Celtics- Derrick WhitePoints28
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Jrue HolidayRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–119
- Q44.0Al Horford defensive rebound111–119
- Q49.1Kevin Love misses 23-foot jumper111–119
- Q417.1Jaylen Brown makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)111–119
- Q432.0Jaylen Brown defensive rebound111–116
- Q436.0Tyler Herro misses 25-foot three point jumper111–116
- Q447.1Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2111–116
- Q447.1Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2111–115
- Q447.1(00:47.4) [Heat] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Heat] charged with a timeout111–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34.0Jayson Tatum makes 28-foot three pointer (Jrue Holiday assists)MIA 88 – 87 BOS · BOS 35% → 47% +12BOS 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q410:55Derrick White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)MIA 90 – 91 BOS · BOS 42% → 55% +13BOS 42% → 55%+13 pts
- Q49:12Dru Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 93 – 96 BOS · MIA 23% → 35% +12MIA 23% → 35%+12 pts
- Q46:53Jaylen Brown makes 28-foot three pointerMIA 96 – 101 BOS · BOS 62% → 76% +14BOS 62% → 76%+14 pts
- Q459.0Kevin Love makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 111 – 114 BOS · MIA 1% → 14% +12MIA 1% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- BOS 53%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- MIA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.5 – 113.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −33 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +19 Elo | BOS 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30103.0 | Points scored | 108.018th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Points allowed | 104.07th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +4.010th of 30 |
| 16th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 110.812th of 30 |
| 13th of 30106.2 | Defense rating | 106.714th of 30 |
| 30th of 3095.6 | Pace | 97.027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Heat: last 1