New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jordan HawkinsPoints31
- Zion WilliamsonAssists9
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–134
- Q42.0shot clock turnover116–134
- Q424.2Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound116–134
- Q427.2Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point jumper116–134
- Q445.0Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zeke Nnaji assists)116–134
- Q458.1Hunter Tyson enters the game for Aaron Gordon116–131
- Q458.1Collin Gillespie enters the game for Nikola Jokic116–131
- Q458.1Jalen Pickett enters the game for Reggie Jackson116–131
- Q458.1Braxton Key enters the game for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope116–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:46Jordan Hawkins makes 24-foot three pointer (Larry Nance Jr. assists)NO 45 – 33 DEN · NO 50% → 57% +8NO 50% → 57%+8 pts
- Q310:58Jordan Hawkins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 74 – 61 DEN · NO 60% → 69% +8NO 60% → 69%+8 pts
- Q39:28Michael Porter Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)NO 74 – 66 DEN · DEN 35% → 44% +9DEN 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q38:51Reggie Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)NO 74 – 69 DEN · DEN 44% → 53% +9DEN 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q411:22Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three pointer (Zion Williamson assists)NO 95 – 99 DEN · NO 14% → 22% +8NO 14% → 22%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 79%
- Fair odds
- DEN -320
- NO +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 107.5 – 116.4 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | +168 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +228 Elo | DEN 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.2 | Points scored | 114.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 104.73rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +9.93rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 115.36th of 30 |
| 16th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 105.45th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+168 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.