Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds9
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints33
- Dyson DanielsAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–125
- Q48.0Joe Harris enters the game for Jalen Duren116–125
- Q48.0CJ McCollum makes technical free throw116–125
- Q48.0Jalen Duren ejected116–124
- Q48.0Jalen Duren technical foul (1st technical foul)116–124
- Q48.0Jordan Hawkins makes technical free throw116–124
- Q48.0Jalen Duren technical foul (1st technical foul)116–123
- Q48.0Marcus Sasser makes free throw 2 of 2116–123
- Q48.0Marcus Sasser makes free throw 1 of 2115–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:06Matt Ryan makes 27-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)DET 5 – 7 NO · NO 56% → 62% +6NO 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q18:30Isaiah Stewart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 14 – 12 NO · DET 40% → 46% +6DET 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q18:14CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)DET 14 – 15 NO · NO 54% → 60% +6NO 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q17:49Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)DET 17 – 15 NO · DET 40% → 46% +6DET 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q17:03Matt Ryan makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)DET 17 – 18 NO · NO 54% → 60% +6NO 54% → 60%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 56%
- Fair odds
- NO -141
- DET +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 110.2 – 112.8 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NO and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | −5 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Zion Williamson −3 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +45 Elo | NO 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 58.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 104.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 106.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −2.018th of 30 |
| 17th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 101.829th of 30 |
| 11th of 30105.2 | Defense rating | 103.77th of 30 |
| 17th of 30102.2 | Pace | 103.09th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−5 Elo- Zion Williamson rest−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.