New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints29
- Zion WilliamsonAssists8
- CJ McCollumRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints20
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–106
- Q40.2Thunder Full timeout110–106
- Q40.2CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2110–106
- Q40.2Olivier Sarr enters the game for Isaiah Joe109–106
- Q40.2CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2109–106
- Q40.2(00:00.9) [Pelicans] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)108–106
- Q40.2Jalen Williams personal foul108–106
- Q41.1CJ McCollum defensive rebound108–106
- Q43.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 26-foot step back jumpshot108–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:26Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)NO 72 – 73 OKC · OKC 48% → 60% +11OKC 48% → 60%+11 pts
- Q410:24CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)NO 85 – 81 OKC · NO 49% → 62% +13NO 49% → 62%+13 pts
- Q49:22Matt Ryan makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 90 – 81 OKC · NO 72% → 83% +11NO 72% → 83%+11 pts
- Q42:52Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shotNO 105 – 102 OKC · OKC 16% → 28% +12OKC 16% → 28%+12 pts
- Q41:26CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 108 – 104 OKC · NO 60% → 88% +28NO 60% → 88%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 64%
- Fair odds
- OKC -156
- NO +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.8 – 114.2 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +22 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +98 Elo | OKC 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30103.0 | Points scored | 112.813th of 30 |
| 9th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 112.314th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−4.0 | Margin | +0.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30100.7 | Offense rating | 109.912th of 30 |
| 9th of 30104.6 | Defense rating | 109.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.3 | Pace | 102.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 291–0 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.