Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints20
- Alec BurksAssists7
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
- Q420.1Jaden Ivey turnover112–124
- Q420.1Jaden Ivey offensive charge112–124
- Q423.0Jared Rhoden defensive rebound112–124
- Q427.1Aleksej Pokusevski misses 27-foot three point jumper112–124
- Q447.1Marvin Bagley III makes free throw 2 of 2112–124
- Q447.1Marvin Bagley III makes free throw 1 of 2111–124
- Q447.1Aleksej Pokusevski personal foul110–124
- Q451.0Marcus Sasser defensive rebound110–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:41Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DET 8 – 13 OKC · OKC 54% → 60% +7OKC 54% → 60%+7 pts
- Q15:05Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alec Burks assists)DET 14 – 16 OKC · DET 40% → 46% +7DET 40% → 46%+7 pts
- Q32:40Alec Burks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 72 – 82 OKC · DET 11% → 18% +6DET 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q32:11Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDET 75 – 82 OKC · DET 17% → 25% +8DET 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q31:55Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Olivier Sarr assists)DET 75 – 85 OKC · OKC 75% → 83% +8OKC 75% → 83%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- DET 53%
- Fair odds
- DET -103
- OKC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.5 – 112.3 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +9 | +9 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +21 Elo | DET 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 109.020th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30101.3 | Points allowed | 112.316th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+9.0 | Margin | −3.318th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 106.916th of 30 |
| 4th of 30101.0 | Defense rating | 110.118th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.9 | Pace | 101.718th of 30 |
| 11th of 281–1 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.