Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints29
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints30
- Marcus SasserAssists6
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–101
- Q47.0Toumani Camara defensive rebound110–101
- Q49.0Ausar Thompson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot110–101
- Q414.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2110–101
- Q414.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2109–101
- Q414.1Cade Cunningham personal foul108–101
- Q425.0Deandre Ayton defensive rebound108–101
- Q427.0Cade Cunningham misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot108–101
- Q433.0Malcolm Brogdon makes 15-foot pullup jump shot108–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:51Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)POR 94 – 93 DET · POR 36% → 52% +16POR 36% → 52%+16 pts
- Q46:16Shaedon Sharpe makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Skylar Mays assists)POR 96 – 93 DET · POR 53% → 64% +11POR 53% → 64%+11 pts
- Q45:29Ausar Thompson makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)POR 96 – 95 DET · DET 35% → 47% +12DET 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q44:06Cade Cunningham makes 3-foot two point shotPOR 97 – 97 DET · DET 38% → 53% +14DET 38% → 53%+14 pts
- Q43:40Isaiah Stewart makes tip shotPOR 99 – 99 DET · DET 38% → 52% +15DET 38% → 52%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Fair odds
- DET -141
- POR +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 110.5 – 113.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | −19 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Alec Burks −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +78 Elo | DET 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30101.3 | Points scored | 110.815th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 107.09th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−9.3 | Margin | +3.812th of 30 |
| 27th of 30101.7 | Offense rating | 109.313th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 105.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.117th of 30 |
| 17th of 281–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−19 Elo- Alec Burks left forearm−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.