Orlando Magic at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints23
- Markelle FultzAssists6
- Moritz WagnerRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints24
- Jerami GrantAssists3
- Deandre AytonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–97
- Q44.1Malcolm Brogdon makes driving layup (Scoot Henderson assists)102–97
- Q412.1Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2102–95
- Q412.1Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2101–95
- Q412.1Malcolm Brogdon personal take foul100–95
- Q413.1Jerami Grant lost ball turnover (Jalen Suggs steals)100–95
- Q413.1Paolo Banchero vs. Jerami Grant (Franz Wagner gains possession)100–95
- Q422.1Trail Blazers Full timeout100–95
- Q422.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound100–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:09Shaedon Sharpe makes 24-foot three point shot (Jerami Grant assists)ORL 72 – 69 POR · POR 32% → 41% +10POR 32% → 41%+10 pts
- Q34:40Shaedon Sharpe makes 28-foot step back jumpshotORL 74 – 72 POR · POR 35% → 45% +10POR 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q410:28Jabari Walker makes two point shotORL 83 – 82 POR · POR 38% → 47% +9POR 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q410:14Cole Anthony makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moritz Wagner assists)ORL 86 – 82 POR · ORL 53% → 66% +13ORL 53% → 66%+13 pts
- Q47:27Franz Wagner makes 4-foot two point shotORL 90 – 84 POR · ORL 69% → 78% +9ORL 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- POR 51%
- Fair odds
- POR -113
- ORL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 112.8 – 113.7 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −27 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +3 Elo | POR 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 111.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 3086.0 | Points allowed | 123.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+30.0 | Margin | −12.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30120.5 | Offense rating | 109.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 3089.4 | Defense rating | 121.529th of 30 |
| 30th of 3095.8 | Pace | 101.721st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Magic: last 1