Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints20
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints35
- De'Anthony MeltonAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–126
- Q418.1Toumani Camara makes dunk (Jabari Walker assists)98–126
- Q434.1Danuel House Jr. makes driving layup (Jaden Springer assists)96–126
- Q449.1Jabari Walker makes 26-foot three pointer (Skylar Mays assists)96–124
- Q457.1Furkan Korkmaz makes 25-foot three point jumper (Danuel House Jr. assists)93–124
- Q41:05Filip Petrusev defensive rebound93–121
- Q41:09Mo Bamba blocks Toumani Camara 's 4-foot two point shot93–121
- Q41:32Furkan Korkmaz makes free throw 2 of 293–121
- Q41:32Mo Bamba enters the game for Paul Reed93–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:51Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three pointer (De'Anthony Melton assists)POR 6 – 7 PHI · PHI 56% → 62% +6PHI 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q28:11Toumani Camara makes 27-foot three pointer (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 41 – 42 PHI · POR 32% → 39% +7POR 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q21:27Tyrese Maxey makes 24-foot three point shot (Tobias Harris assists)POR 58 – 62 PHI · PHI 60% → 68% +8PHI 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q311:40De'Anthony Melton makes 28-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)POR 60 – 69 PHI · PHI 73% → 80% +7PHI 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q39:08Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)POR 64 – 74 PHI · PHI 76% → 83% +7PHI 76% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 62%
- Fair odds
- PHI -152
- POR +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.7 – 114.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −38 | −9 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | POR crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +83 Elo | PHI 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30104.0 | Points scored | 115.510th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 112.516th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.5 | Margin | +3.013th of 30 |
| 20th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 116.45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 113.424th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Trail Blazers: last 2