Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints34
- Joel EmbiidAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- Dennis SchroderAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–107
- Q420.1Joel Embiid defensive rebound114–107
- Q422.1Dennis Schroder misses two point shot114–107
- Q432.0Dennis Schroder offensive rebound114–107
- Q435.0Scottie Barnes misses 26-foot three point jumper114–107
- Q437.0De'Anthony Melton out of bounds bad pass turnover114–107
- Q438.0Scottie Barnes makes driving dunk (Gradey Dick assists)114–107
- Q440.2Raptors Full timeout114–105
- Q440.2Tobias Harris kicked ball turnover114–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:08Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 61 – 59 TOR · PHI 47% → 56% +9PHI 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q39:19Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 66 – 61 TOR · PHI 57% → 66% +9PHI 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q47:47Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)PHI 96 – 89 TOR · TOR 10% → 18% +8TOR 10% → 18%+8 pts
- Q47:09Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)PHI 98 – 92 TOR · TOR 11% → 21% +10TOR 11% → 21%+10 pts
- Q46:20Gradey Dick makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)PHI 100 – 95 TOR · TOR 12% → 23% +11TOR 12% → 23%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -103
- TOR +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 112.8 – 112.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | −28 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | PHI crossed 1 time zone and TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +4 Elo | PHI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 100.029th of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 99.04th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.012th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 92.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 91.91st of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.7 | Pace | 102.018th of 30 |
| 13th of 250–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 25 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
76ers: last 1