Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints22
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds23
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints20
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–91
- Q412.0Malcolm Brogdon defensive rebound99–91
- Q415.1Pascal Siakam misses 29-foot three point jumper99–91
- Q420.0Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 299–91
- Q420.0Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 298–91
- Q420.0Scottie Barnes personal foul97–91
- Q420.0Deandre Ayton defensive rebound97–91
- Q421.1Gary Trent Jr. misses driving layup97–91
- Q425.2Raptors Full timeout97–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:12Malcolm Brogdon makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotPOR 72 – 68 TOR · POR 44% → 55% +11POR 44% → 55%+11 pts
- Q45:42Jakob Poeltl makes layup (Pascal Siakam assists)POR 86 – 84 TOR · TOR 32% → 44% +11TOR 32% → 44%+11 pts
- Q45:00Jerami Grant makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 88 – 85 TOR · POR 51% → 63% +13POR 51% → 63%+13 pts
- Q43:25Dennis Schroder makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Jakob Poeltl assists)POR 88 – 87 TOR · TOR 32% → 47% +15TOR 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q42:41Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 91 – 87 TOR · POR 55% → 78% +24POR 55% → 78%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -5
- TOR 69%
- Fair odds
- TOR -201
- POR +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.3 – 114.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −43 | −8 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +136 Elo | TOR 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 66.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30102.0 | Points scored | 102.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 104.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−15.0 | Margin | −1.716th of 30 |
| 24th of 30101.0 | Offense rating | 98.829th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 100.45th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 280–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.