Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints19
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–123
- Q48.1shot clock turnover101–123
- Q430.1Hunter Tyson defensive rebound101–123
- Q436.0Dalen Terry misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot101–123
- Q445.0Zeke Nnaji makes free throw 2 of 2101–123
- Q445.0Nuggets offensive team rebound101–122
- Q445.0Zeke Nnaji misses free throw 1 of 2101–122
- Q445.0Dalen Terry shooting foul101–122
- Q41:00Terry Taylor makes 2-foot layup (Dalen Terry assists)101–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:04Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)CHI 40 – 37 DEN · DEN 58% → 65% +8DEN 58% → 65%+8 pts
- Q22:07Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumperCHI 48 – 47 DEN · DEN 61% → 69% +8DEN 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q237.1Zach LaVine makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 53 – 49 DEN · CHI 32% → 40% +8CHI 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q310:50Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)CHI 53 – 59 DEN · DEN 77% → 83% +6DEN 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q310:14Reggie Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)CHI 55 – 62 DEN · DEN 79% → 85% +6DEN 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8.5
- DEN 79%
- Fair odds
- DEN -341
- CHI +341 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 106.9 – 116.3 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DEN and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | +145 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +232 Elo | DEN 79.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 77.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 77.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30105.7 | Points scored | 113.215th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 105.35th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−6.5 | Margin | +7.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 30105.5 | Offense rating | 113.49th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 105.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.6 | Pace | 99.627th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+145 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.