Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Dorian Finney-SmithPoints21
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists9
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds10
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints24
- Zach LaVineAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–107
- Q40.0Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound109–107
- Q40.0Zach LaVine misses 21-foot jumper109–107
- Q44.2Zach LaVine offensive rebound109–107
- Q44.2Zach LaVine misses free throw 2 of 2109–107
- Q44.2Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie109–107
- Q44.2Andre Drummond enters the game for Coby White109–107
- Q44.2Zach LaVine makes free throw 1 of 2109–107
- Q44.2Ben Simmons personal foul109–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:55Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 96 – 93 CHI · BKN 50% → 67% +17BKN 50% → 67%+17 pts
- Q44:16Dorian Finney-Smith makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 99 – 95 CHI · BKN 57% → 76% +19BKN 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q42:40Nikola Vucevic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)BKN 103 – 102 CHI · CHI 19% → 41% +22CHI 19% → 41%+22 pts
- Q42:18Cam Thomas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)BKN 106 – 102 CHI · BKN 59% → 83% +24BKN 59% → 83%+24 pts
- Q41:13Mikal Bridges makes driving dunkBKN 108 – 104 CHI · BKN 74% → 90% +16BKN 74% → 90%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1
- BKN 53%
- Fair odds
- BKN -101
- CHI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 113.4 – 113.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −17 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +23 Elo | BKN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 105.426th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 112.817th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.5 | Margin | −7.427th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 104.624th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.921st of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.9 | Pace | 98.730th of 30 |
| 6th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.