Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints21
- Mikal BridgesAssists5
- Ben SimmonsRebounds11
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints30
- Tyler HerroAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–105
- Q41.1Cam Thomas defensive rebound109–105
- Q45.0Duncan Robinson misses 26-foot three point jumper109–105
- Q46.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Haywood Highsmith109–105
- Q46.1Heat Full timeout109–105
- Q46.1Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2109–105
- Q46.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Duncan Robinson108–105
- Q46.1Mikal Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2108–105
- Q46.1Duncan Robinson personal foul107–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:23Lonnie Walker IV makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 86 – 86 MIA · BKN 38% → 52% +14BKN 38% → 52%+14 pts
- Q48:38Trendon Watford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)BKN 89 – 86 MIA · BKN 52% → 66% +14BKN 52% → 66%+14 pts
- Q47:33Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 92 – 90 MIA · BKN 46% → 62% +16BKN 46% → 62%+16 pts
- Q43:22Mikal Bridges makes two point shotBKN 100 – 97 MIA · BKN 59% → 73% +14BKN 59% → 73%+14 pts
- Q459.0Dorian Finney-Smith makes driving layup (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 103 – 99 MIA · BKN 77% → 93% +16BKN 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2
- BKN 57%
- Fair odds
- BKN -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 114.4 – 113.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −22 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +49 Elo | BKN 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.0 | Points scored | 104.526th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 112.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −7.824th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 105.019th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 112.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.7 | Pace | 99.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.