Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints35
- Orlando RobinsonAssists7
- Tyler HerroRebounds8
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Khris MiddletonAssists5
- Bobby PortisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–122
- Q49.1Nikola Jovic bad pass (Malik Beasley steals)114–122
- Q417.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2114–122
- Q417.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2114–121
- Q417.1Duncan Robinson personal take foul114–120
- Q417.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound114–120
- Q418.2Tyler Herro misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot114–120
- Q428.15 second violation114–120
- Q428.1Bucks Full timeout114–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:52Jimmy Butler makes 23-foot three point jumperMIA 20 – 15 MIL · MIA 54% → 60% +7MIA 54% → 60%+7 pts
- Q11:53Pat Connaughton makes 27-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIA 22 – 26 MIL · MIL 53% → 60% +7MIL 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q211:41Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIA 28 – 31 MIL · MIL 51% → 58% +7MIL 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q29:49Pat Connaughton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIA 30 – 38 MIL · MIL 63% → 70% +7MIL 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q20.0Jae Crowder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)MIA 52 – 62 MIL · MIL 70% → 77% +7MIL 70% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 51%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.8 – 113.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −23 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +5 Elo | MIL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30101.3 | Points scored | 114.010th of 30 |
| 13th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 122.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−7.7 | Margin | −8.025th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30103.2 | Offense rating | 108.913th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 116.627th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 104.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 280–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.