Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints22
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints25
- CJ McCollumAssists6
- Brandon IngramRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–105
- Q44.1shot clock turnover123–105
- Q427.1Jalen Johnson defensive rebound123–105
- Q430.0Kira Lewis Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper123–105
- Q441.1Dejounte Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)123–105
- Q41:03Matt Ryan makes free throw 2 of 2120–105
- Q41:03Matt Ryan makes free throw 1 of 2120–104
- Q41:03Clint Capela shooting foul120–103
- Q41:03Matt Ryan offensive rebound120–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:39Zion Williamson makes driving layupATL 64 – 69 NO · NO 53% → 66% +13NO 53% → 66%+13 pts
- Q37:12Clint Capela makes alley oop dunk shot (Trae Young assists)ATL 68 – 69 NO · ATL 34% → 47% +13ATL 34% → 47%+13 pts
- Q36:07Trae Young makes 25-foot driving floating jump shot (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 73 – 71 NO · ATL 47% → 57% +10ATL 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q35:27Trae Young makes 27-foot three point jumperATL 76 – 71 NO · ATL 57% → 67% +10ATL 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q34:59De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 79 – 71 NO · ATL 67% → 76% +9ATL 67% → 76%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- NO 47%
- Fair odds
- NO -100
- ATL +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.1 – 114.1 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +23 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +22 Elo | ATL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.8 | Points scored | 108.820th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 108.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 106.021st of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 105.89th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.6 | Pace | 102.810th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.