Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints25
- Delon WrightAssists9
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds9
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints24
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–130
- Q40.1shot clock turnover121–130
- Q424.1Bilal Coulibaly makes dunk (Anthony Gill assists)121–130
- Q427.1De'Andre Hunter lost ball turnover (Johnny Davis steals)119–130
- Q439.0Johnny Davis makes free throw 1 of 1119–130
- Q439.0De'Andre Hunter shooting foul118–130
- Q439.0Johnny Davis makes driving layup118–130
- Q450.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2116–130
- Q450.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2116–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:28Saddiq Bey makes three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)WSH 14 – 10 ATL · ATL 54% → 60% +6ATL 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q17:02Jordan Poole makes three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 17 – 10 ATL · WSH 40% → 46% +6WSH 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q19.1Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three pointer (Delon Wright assists)WSH 30 – 25 ATL · WSH 38% → 45% +7WSH 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q210:25Delon Wright makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 35 – 27 ATL · WSH 45% → 53% +7WSH 45% → 53%+7 pts
- Q29:47Trae Young makes 26-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)WSH 37 – 30 ATL · ATL 42% → 50% +7ATL 42% → 50%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6
- ATL 73%
- Fair odds
- ATL -226
- WSH +226 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.0 – 118.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −57 | +41 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +169 Elo | ATL 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 69.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 121.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.0 | Points allowed | 116.322nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.7 | Margin | +4.89th of 30 |
| 16th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 116.47th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 111.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Pace | 104.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.