Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints36
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Sam HauserRebounds8
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints21
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Deni AvdijaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–107
- Q47.1Jared Butler bad pass (Svi Mykhailiuk steals)126–107
- Q420.1Sam Hauser makes 28-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)126–107
- Q433.1Ryan Rollins personal foul123–107
- Q440.0Sam Hauser defensive rebound123–107
- Q443.1Patrick Baldwin misses 27-foot step back jumpshot123–107
- Q447.1Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound123–107
- Q450.1Sam Hauser misses 25-foot three point jumper123–107
- Q41:06Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2123–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:26Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)BOS 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 42% → 48% +6WSH 42% → 48%+6 pts
- Q110:08Kristaps Porzingis makes 2-foot layup (Derrick White assists)BOS 6 – 3 WSH · BOS 52% → 56% +4BOS 52% → 56%+4 pts
- Q19:18Jrue Holiday makes 21-foot jumperBOS 10 – 5 WSH · BOS 56% → 60% +4BOS 56% → 60%+4 pts
- Q18:54Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 13 – 5 WSH · BOS 60% → 66% +6BOS 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q16:30Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)BOS 20 – 7 WSH · BOS 71% → 76% +5BOS 71% → 76%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -101
- BOS +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.9 – 114.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | −50 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 116.58th of 30 |
| 10th of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 124.529th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −8.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 107.515th of 30 |
| 14th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 114.826th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.3 | Pace | 108.91st of 30 |
| 1st of 281–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Celtics: last 2