Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints23
- Stephen CurryAssists4
- Kevon LooneyRebounds8
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Reggie JacksonAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–108
- Q41.1Chris Paul defensive rebound105–108
- Q43.1Reggie Jackson misses free throw 2 of 2105–108
- Q43.1Kevon Looney enters the game for Moses Moody105–108
- Q43.1Reggie Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2105–108
- Q43.1Andrew Wiggins personal foul105–107
- Q45.0Nuggets defensive team rebound105–107
- Q47.0Stephen Curry misses two point shot105–107
- Q414.1Warriors Full timeout105–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:26Reggie Jackson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)GS 84 – 86 DEN · DEN 57% → 70% +13DEN 57% → 70%+13 pts
- Q49:14Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three pointerGS 87 – 86 DEN · GS 30% → 43% +13GS 30% → 43%+13 pts
- Q46:13Justin Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)GS 93 – 95 DEN · DEN 54% → 70% +16DEN 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q41:26Kevon Looney makes 4-foot layup (Chris Paul assists)GS 102 – 103 DEN · GS 15% → 34% +18GS 15% → 34%+18 pts
- Q41:09Reggie Jackson makes 1-foot layup (Nikola Jokic assists)GS 102 – 105 DEN · DEN 67% → 87% +20DEN 67% → 87%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6.5
- DEN 74%
- Fair odds
- DEN -304
- GS +304 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 109.1 – 117.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +181 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +178 Elo | DEN 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 75.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 117.09th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 106.14th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +10.93rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 117.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 106.48th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–1 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+181 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.