Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints28
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints31
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–115
- Q417.0Evan Mobley defensive rebound104–115
- Q421.0Brandin Podziemski misses 22-foot three point jumper104–115
- Q426.1Moses Moody offensive rebound104–115
- Q428.1Jonathan Kuminga misses free throw 1 of 1104–115
- Q428.1Evan Mobley shooting foul104–115
- Q428.1Jonathan Kuminga makes driving layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)104–115
- Q433.1Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound102–115
- Q435.1Evan Mobley misses free throw 2 of 2102–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q326.0Jonathan Kuminga makes 25-foot three point shot (Chris Paul assists)GS 77 – 81 CLE · GS 15% → 34% +19GS 15% → 34%+19 pts
- Q33.0Caris LeVert makes 15-foot pullup jump shotGS 77 – 86 CLE · CLE 66% → 83% +16CLE 66% → 83%+16 pts
- Q411:36Chris Paul makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 80 – 86 CLE · GS 17% → 26% +9GS 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q48:19Jonathan Kuminga makes free throw 1 of 2GS 87 – 93 CLE · GS 13% → 23% +10GS 13% → 23%+10 pts
- Q48:03Max Strus makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)GS 88 – 96 CLE · CLE 74% → 85% +11CLE 74% → 85%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- CLE 43%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- GS +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.5 – 112.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +4 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +45 Elo | GS 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 105.727th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 110.812th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+7.7 | Margin | −5.224th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 104.227th of 30 |
| 10th of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 109.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.