Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Caris LeVertAssists5
- Georges NiangRebounds10
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints24
- Jalen BrunsonAssists4
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–89
- Q45.0Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)95–89
- Q411.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 295–86
- Q411.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 294–86
- Q411.1Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul93–86
- Q413.0Mitchell Robinson makes free throw 2 of 293–86
- Q413.0Mitchell Robinson makes free throw 1 of 293–85
- Q413.0Donovan Mitchell shooting foul93–84
- Q421.1Caris LeVert makes free throw 2 of 293–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q355.0Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 69 – 61 NY · CLE 68% → 78% +10CLE 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q410:25Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 74 – 66 NY · CLE 70% → 80% +11CLE 70% → 80%+11 pts
- Q49:10Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 77 – 68 NY · CLE 75% → 85% +10CLE 75% → 85%+10 pts
- Q44:03Jalen Brunson makes 16-foot two point shotCLE 79 – 76 NY · NY 19% → 30% +11NY 19% → 30%+11 pts
- Q42:36Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 82 – 77 NY · CLE 67% → 86% +20CLE 67% → 86%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- NY 58%
- Fair odds
- NY -116
- CLE +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 111.1 – 112.2 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NY and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −48 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing RJ Barrett −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +57 Elo | NY 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30105.8 | Points scored | 106.520th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +2.812th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30104.5 | Offense rating | 105.618th of 30 |
| 24th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 102.96th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 291–0 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−48 Elo- RJ Barrett left knee soreness−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.