New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints19
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- Evan MobleyAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–91
- Q417.1Ryan Arcidiacono defensive rebound109–91
- Q419.1Emoni Bates misses 22-foot step back jumpshot109–91
- Q425.1Emoni Bates defensive rebound109–91
- Q431.0DaQuan Jeffries misses 23-foot three point jumper109–91
- Q442.0Dylan Windler defensive rebound109–91
- Q445.1Sam Merrill misses 25-foot three point jumper109–91
- Q450.2Miles McBride personal foul109–91
- Q41:09Miles McBride makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)109–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:50RJ Barrett makes 23-foot three point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)NY 39 – 30 CLE · NY 53% → 61% +7NY 53% → 61%+7 pts
- Q25:27Isaac Okoro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)NY 42 – 39 CLE · CLE 45% → 53% +8CLE 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q24:32Quentin Grimes makes three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 45 – 41 CLE · NY 42% → 50% +8NY 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q23:38RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 48 – 44 CLE · NY 42% → 50% +8NY 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q21:24Julius Randle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 56 – 48 CLE · NY 54% → 62% +8NY 54% → 62%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 63%
- Fair odds
- CLE -179
- NY +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.5 – 114.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | −5 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +95 Elo | CLE 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30105.7 | Points scored | 110.716th of 30 |
| 12th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 115.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −4.721st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30104.0 | Offense rating | 108.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30106.3 | Defense rating | 113.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.817th of 30 |
| 10th of 281–1 | Road vs home | 0–224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.