Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints38
- Donovan MitchellAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–121
- Q40.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound116–121
- Q40.1Evan Mobley misses 31-foot jump bank shot116–121
- Q41.2Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 2 of 2116–121
- Q41.2Max Strus enters the game for Isaac Okoro116–120
- Q41.2Darius Garland enters the game for Jarrett Allen116–120
- Q41.2Aaron Nesmith enters the game for Buddy Hield116–120
- Q41.2Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 2116–120
- Q41.2Isaac Okoro personal take foul116–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:46Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)CLE 100 – 100 IND · CLE 32% → 46% +15CLE 32% → 46%+15 pts
- Q46:45Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 105 – 101 IND · CLE 52% → 68% +16CLE 52% → 68%+16 pts
- Q45:28Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point shotCLE 105 – 106 IND · IND 41% → 59% +18IND 41% → 59%+18 pts
- Q41:53Donovan Mitchell makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 114 – 115 IND · CLE 20% → 38% +18CLE 20% → 38%+18 pts
- Q417.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 22-foot step back jumpshotCLE 114 – 117 IND · IND 76% → 98% +22IND 76% → 98%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 59%
- Fair odds
- IND -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.1 – 114.9 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +10 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +66 Elo | IND 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30103.6 | Points scored | 119.35th of 30 |
| 11th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 125.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−5.2 | Margin | −5.822nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30102.9 | Offense rating | 112.57th of 30 |
| 13th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 117.929th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.4 | Pace | 105.93rd of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.