Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- T.J. McConnellPoints18
- T.J. McConnellAssists5
- T.J. McConnellRebounds7
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints30
- Payton PritchardAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–155
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–155
- Q44.0shot clock turnover104–155
- Q428.1Jarace Walker makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (T.J. McConnell assists)104–155
- Q450.0Svi Mykhailiuk makes two point shot (Dalano Banton assists)102–155
- Q454.0Jordan Nwora bad pass (Dalano Banton steals)102–153
- Q456.1Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound102–153
- Q459.1Isaiah Jackson blocks Svi Mykhailiuk 's 2-foot dunk102–153
- Q41:12Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound102–153
- Q41:12Isaiah Jackson misses free throw 2 of 2102–153
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:12Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)IND 6 – 8 BOS · BOS 52% → 58% +6BOS 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q19:47Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Derrick White assists)IND 6 – 11 BOS · BOS 58% → 64% +6BOS 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q19:25Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot step back jumpshotIND 6 – 14 BOS · BOS 64% → 70% +6BOS 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q15:31Al Horford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)IND 16 – 26 BOS · BOS 69% → 74% +6BOS 69% → 74%+6 pts
- Q12:07Derrick White makes 27-foot three pointerIND 23 – 36 BOS · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1
- BOS 55%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- IND +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 113.5 – 114.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +3 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +35 Elo | BOS 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30124.3 | Points scored | 117.78th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 107.310th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+9.3 | Margin | +10.35th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 106.111th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.6 | Pace | 100.721st of 30 |
| 1st of 291–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.