Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Chris PaulAssists13
- Stephen CurryRebounds8
Thunder- Luguentz DortPoints29
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–139
- Q40.0Gary Payton II enters the game for Klay Thompson141–139
- Q40.0Stephen Curry makes driving layup141–139
- Q40.0(00:00.2) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)139–139
- Q416.1Moses Moody enters the game for Kevon Looney139–139
- Q416.1Warriors Full timeout139–139
- Q416.1Luguentz Dort makes free throw 2 of 2139–139
- Q416.1Kevon Looney enters the game for Andrew Wiggins139–138
- Q416.1Chris Paul enters the game for Jonathan Kuminga139–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:24Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)GS 133 – 133 OKC · GS 26% → 48% +22GS 26% → 48%+22 pts
- Q455.1Stephen Curry makes driving layupGS 135 – 136 OKC · GS 12% → 34% +22GS 12% → 34%+22 pts
- Q421.0Gary Payton II makes alley oop layup (Draymond Green assists)GS 139 – 138 OKC · GS 27% → 72% +46GS 27% → 72%+46 pts
- Q416.1Luguentz Dort makes free throw 2 of 2GS 139 – 139 OKC · OKC 25% → 51% +26OKC 25% → 51%+26 pts
- Q40.0Stephen Curry makes driving layupGS 141 – 139 OKC · GS 47% → 100% +53GS 47% → 100%+53 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1
- OKC 54%
- Fair odds
- OKC -137
- GS +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 111.1 – 113.5 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +8 | GS: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +28 Elo | OKC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 111.417th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.0 | Points allowed | 111.816th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+8.8 | Margin | −0.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 108.114th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30102.5 | Defense rating | 108.515th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.99th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.