Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints34
- Draymond GreenAssists8
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Pistons- Killian HayesPoints21
- Killian HayesAssists7
- Isaiah StewartRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–109
- Q416.2Jonathan Kuminga makes free throw 2 of 2120–109
- Q416.2Warriors offensive team rebound119–109
- Q416.2Jonathan Kuminga misses free throw 1 of 2119–109
- Q416.2Ausar Thompson personal take foul119–109
- Q416.2Cade Cunningham bad pass (Jonathan Kuminga steals)119–109
- Q421.0Ausar Thompson offensive rebound119–109
- Q423.0Killian Hayes misses 15-foot pullup jump shot119–109
- Q429.1Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Chris Paul119–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:37Killian Hayes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)GS 83 – 85 DET · DET 44% → 56% +13DET 44% → 56%+13 pts
- Q410:48Stanley Umude makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)GS 85 – 88 DET · DET 48% → 61% +13DET 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q410:30Chris Paul makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dario Saric assists)GS 88 – 88 DET · GS 39% → 52% +13GS 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q47:46Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)GS 98 – 97 DET · GS 41% → 57% +15GS 41% → 57%+15 pts
- Q46:54Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)GS 103 – 97 DET · GS 67% → 81% +13GS 67% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 59%
- Fair odds
- GS -117
- DET +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.7 – 112.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | −23 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +60 Elo | GS 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 109.420th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 111.915th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.0 | Margin | −2.416th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 107.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 109.717th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.917th of 30 |
| 4th of 304–1 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.