Phoenix Suns at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints41
- Eric GordonAssists8
- Josh OkogieRebounds7
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–106
- Q415.1Marcus Sasser makes layup120–106
- Q426.1Saben Lee makes 9-foot pullup jump shot120–104
- Q440.1Marvin Bagley III makes free throw 1 of 1118–104
- Q440.1Udoka Azubuike shooting foul118–103
- Q440.1Marvin Bagley III makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot (Marcus Sasser assists)118–103
- Q448.1Saben Lee makes 9-foot two point shot118–101
- Q41:02Marvin Bagley III makes free throw 2 of 2116–101
- Q41:02Marvin Bagley III makes free throw 1 of 2116–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:46Marcus Sasser makes 15-foot driving floating jump shotPHX 13 – 15 DET · DET 51% → 60% +9DET 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q210:42Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)PHX 32 – 30 DET · DET 43% → 51% +7DET 43% → 51%+7 pts
- Q29:38Eric Gordon makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)PHX 35 – 32 DET · PHX 45% → 52% +7PHX 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q22:24Marcus Sasser makes 27-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)PHX 52 – 47 DET · DET 33% → 41% +8DET 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q311:08Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Eric Gordon assists)PHX 61 – 51 DET · PHX 66% → 74% +8PHX 66% → 74%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 57%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- PHX +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.5 – 113.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +13 | −10 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +47 Elo | DET 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 110.019th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 110.511th of 30 |
| 12th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.512th of 30 |
| 15th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 107.718th of 30 |
| 12th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 108.211th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.016th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.