San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints38
- Tre JonesAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists13
- Devin BookerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–121
- Q420.0Keldon Johnson defensive rebound132–121
- Q424.0Keita Bates-Diop misses 27-foot three point jumper132–121
- Q434.0Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2132–121
- Q434.0Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2131–121
- Q434.0Grayson Allen personal foul130–121
- Q438.1Keita Bates-Diop personal foul130–121
- Q445.0Kevin Durant makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Devin Booker assists)130–121
- Q448.0Suns Full timeout130–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:47Cedi Osman makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 114 – 108 PHX · SA 64% → 79% +15SA 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q45:06Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointerSA 114 – 113 PHX · PHX 29% → 47% +18PHX 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q44:44Jeremy Sochan makes driving layupSA 116 – 113 PHX · SA 53% → 66% +13SA 53% → 66%+13 pts
- Q44:21Keita Bates-Diop makes 23-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)SA 116 – 116 PHX · PHX 33% → 53% +20PHX 33% → 53%+20 pts
- Q43:15Victor Wembanyama makes 3-foot dunk (Zach Collins assists)SA 121 – 116 PHX · SA 70% → 82% +12SA 70% → 82%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Fair odds
- PHX -153
- SA +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.5 – 114.8 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +22 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +100 Elo | PHX 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 60.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 110.817th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.3 | Points allowed | 105.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−10.5 | Margin | +5.08th of 30 |
| 28th of 30102.4 | Offense rating | 107.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 102.54th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.7 | Pace | 103.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–0 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.