San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints14
- Zach CollinsAssists4
- Zach CollinsRebounds6
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints21
- Paul GeorgeAssists5
- Russell WestbrookRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–123
- Q47.1Bones Hyland steps out of bounds turnover83–123
- Q417.1Sandro Mamukelashvili loose ball foul83–123
- Q417.1Clippers defensive team rebound83–123
- Q419.1Blake Wesley misses free throw 2 of 283–123
- Q419.1Blake Wesley makes free throw 1 of 283–123
- Q419.1Kobe Brown shooting foul82–123
- Q427.1Bones Hyland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)82–123
- Q428.1Moussa Diabate offensive rebound82–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)SA 3 – 0 LAC · SA 44% → 50% +6SA 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q18:16Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)SA 3 – 8 LAC · LAC 60% → 67% +6LAC 60% → 67%+6 pts
- Q12:52Cedi Osman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 12 – 23 LAC · SA 17% → 22% +5SA 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q12:29Cedi Osman makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Malaki Branham assists)SA 15 – 23 LAC · SA 22% → 27% +5SA 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q29:44Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)SA 17 – 31 LAC · LAC 79% → 84% +5LAC 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 58%
- Fair odds
- LAC -130
- SA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.7 – 115.7 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +6 | SA: Usual rotation · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +54 Elo | LAC 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.5 | Points scored | 120.55th of 30 |
| 28th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 115.519th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +5.011th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 119.72nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.9 | Pace | 100.222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Spurs: last 2