San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints27
- Devin VassellAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints26
- Kevin DurantAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–114
- Q40.0Suns offensive team rebound115–114
- Q40.0Kevin Durant misses 10-foot two point shot115–114
- Q41.0Jusuf Nurkic enters the game for Josh Okogie115–114
- Q41.0Suns Full timeout115–114
- Q42.0Keldon Johnson makes driving layup115–114
- Q43.0Kevin Durant lost ball turnover (Keldon Johnson steals)113–114
- Q46.1Victor Wembanyama makes dunk113–114
- Q46.1Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound111–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:38Jusuf Nurkic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Eric Gordon assists)SA 104 – 110 PHX · PHX 75% → 89% +14PHX 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q42:48Devin Vassell makes 28-foot step back jumpshotSA 107 – 110 PHX · SA 8% → 23% +15SA 8% → 23%+15 pts
- Q42:26Kevin Durant makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)SA 107 – 112 PHX · PHX 78% → 89% +11PHX 78% → 89%+11 pts
- Q46.1Victor Wembanyama makes dunkSA 113 – 114 PHX · SA <1% → 13% +13SA <1% → 13%+13 pts
- Q42.0Keldon Johnson makes driving layupSA 115 – 114 PHX · SA 2% → 98% +95SA 2% → 98%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4.5
- PHX 67%
- Fair odds
- PHX -178
- SA +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.8 – 115.2 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +15 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +126 Elo | PHX 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 109.718th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 102.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−14.3 | Margin | +7.09th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.7 | Offense rating | 106.416th of 30 |
| 24th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 99.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.2 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 19th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.