Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Jusuf NurkicAssists5
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints26
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–112
- Q415.2Robert Covington defensive rebound100–112
- Q419.0Keita Bates-Diop misses free throw 1 of 1100–112
- Q419.0Kenyon Martin Jr. shooting foul100–112
- Q419.0Keita Bates-Diop makes 26-foot three pointer100–112
- Q427.1Jaden Springer makes tip shot97–112
- Q427.1Jaden Springer offensive rebound97–110
- Q429.1Mo Bamba misses tip shot97–110
- Q429.1Mo Bamba offensive rebound97–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q244.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (De'Anthony Melton assists)PHX 43 – 50 PHI · PHI 72% → 79% +7PHI 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q331.1Josh Okogie makes 2-foot dunk (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 75 – 77 PHI · PHX 27% → 34% +7PHX 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q36.1Joel Embiid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaden Springer assists)PHX 75 – 80 PHI · PHI 66% → 76% +11PHI 66% → 76%+11 pts
- Q410:04Kevin Durant makes dunkPHX 80 – 84 PHI · PHX 19% → 26% +7PHX 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q49:41Furkan Korkmaz makes 27-foot three pointer (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHX 80 – 87 PHI · PHI 74% → 84% +10PHI 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4.5
- PHI 68%
- Fair odds
- PHI -190
- PHX +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.7 – 115.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +53 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | PHX crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +130 Elo | PHI 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 105.55th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +12.32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 117.13rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 104.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.7 | Pace | 100.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.