Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- Dennis SchroderAssists10
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints28
- Joel EmbiidAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–114
- Q422.0Garrett Temple makes two point shot (Thaddeus Young assists)99–114
- Q425.0Thaddeus Young defensive rebound97–114
- Q427.1Jaden Springer misses 10-foot pullup jump shot97–114
- Q437.1Mo Bamba defensive rebound97–114
- Q440.1Thaddeus Young misses free throw 2 of 297–114
- Q440.1Raptors offensive team rebound97–114
- Q440.1Thaddeus Young misses free throw 1 of 297–114
- Q440.1Kenyon Martin Jr. personal foul97–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:51Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three pointer (Patrick Beverley assists)TOR 30 – 33 PHI · PHI 64% → 70% +7PHI 64% → 70%+7 pts
- Q29:11Malachi Flynn makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 35 – 33 PHI · TOR 34% → 41% +7TOR 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q34:22O.G. Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)TOR 71 – 75 PHI · TOR 19% → 28% +8TOR 19% → 28%+8 pts
- Q31:14Gary Trent Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malachi Flynn assists)TOR 77 – 84 PHI · TOR 11% → 18% +7TOR 11% → 18%+7 pts
- Q356.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 28-foot three pointerTOR 77 – 87 PHI · PHI 82% → 89% +7PHI 82% → 89%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4.5
- PHI 68%
- Fair odds
- PHI -193
- TOR +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 109.6 – 114.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | +32 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +128 Elo | PHI 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 119.07th of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.4 | Points allowed | 107.711th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +11.33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 118.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.6 | Defense rating | 106.812th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.6 | Pace | 100.324th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.