Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Malik BeasleyPoints20
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds6
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Dennis SchroderAssists11
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–130
- Q44.1shot clock turnover111–130
- Q426.1Chris Boucher defensive rebound111–130
- Q428.2Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses two point shot111–130
- Q432.1Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound111–130
- Q434.1Chris Boucher misses driving floating jump shot111–130
- Q449.0MarJon Beauchamp makes step back jumpshot111–130
- Q41:07Chris Boucher makes free throw 2 of 2108–130
- Q41:07Chris Boucher makes free throw 1 of 2108–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:18Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIL 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 55% → 61% +6TOR 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q19:41Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIL 2 – 6 TOR · TOR 57% → 63% +6TOR 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q19:11O.G. Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)MIL 4 – 9 TOR · TOR 59% → 65% +6TOR 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q16:37Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMIL 6 – 18 TOR · TOR 73% → 78% +5TOR 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q210:50Otto Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)MIL 20 – 34 TOR · TOR 78% → 83% +5TOR 78% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -120
- MIL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.5 – 112.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −19 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 99.530th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 102.83rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −3.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 98.030th of 30 |
| 27th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 101.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.4 | Pace | 98.829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.