New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints31
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- Dyson DanielsRebounds10
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints25
- Fred VanVleetAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–104
- Q41.0Larry Nance Jr. out of bounds lost ball turnover101–104
- Q42.1Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2101–104
- Q42.1Matt Ryan enters the game for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl101–103
- Q42.1Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun101–103
- Q42.1Rockets offensive team rebound101–103
- Q42.1Jalen Green misses free throw 1 of 2101–103
- Q42.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl personal take foul101–103
- Q43.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl enters the game for Cody Zeller101–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:54Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)NO 95 – 91 HOU · HOU 12% → 26% +14HOU 12% → 26%+14 pts
- Q42:55Brandon Ingram makes three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 98 – 93 HOU · NO 63% → 84% +20NO 63% → 84%+20 pts
- Q41:14Fred VanVleet makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)NO 100 – 98 HOU · HOU 6% → 27% +22HOU 6% → 27%+22 pts
- Q447.1Fred VanVleet makes 28-foot three pointerNO 100 – 101 HOU · HOU 22% → 67% +45HOU 22% → 67%+45 pts
- Q415.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2NO 100 – 102 HOU · HOU 77% → 93% +16HOU 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 68%
- Fair odds
- HOU -167
- NO +167 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.4 – 114.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +37 | NO: Missing Naji Marshall −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +132 Elo | HOU 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 112.615th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 106.74th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +5.95th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 113.210th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 107.39th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.9 | Pace | 98.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−7 Elo- Naji Marshall right knee contusion−1 Elo
Rockets
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.