New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints24
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints26
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–122
- Q415.0Dereon Seabron makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Kira Lewis Jr. assists)101–122
- Q425.1Luka Garza makes 5-foot two point shot98–122
- Q435.1E.J. Liddell makes free throw 2 of 298–120
- Q435.1E.J. Liddell makes free throw 1 of 297–120
- Q435.1Josh Minott personal foul96–120
- Q451.1Dereon Seabron defensive rebound96–120
- Q453.2Luka Garza misses free throw 2 of 296–120
- Q453.2Luka Garza makes free throw 1 of 296–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:41Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three pointer (Anthony Edwards assists)NO 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 60% → 66% +6MIN 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q18:45Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)NO 4 – 6 MIN · MIN 62% → 68% +6MIN 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q12:30Matt Ryan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kira Lewis Jr. assists)NO 20 – 23 MIN · NO 25% → 31% +6NO 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q210:47Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)NO 29 – 30 MIN · NO 29% → 35% +7NO 29% → 35%+7 pts
- Q210:23Mike Conley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)NO 29 – 33 MIN · MIN 65% → 71% +7MIN 65% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Fair odds
- MIN -182
- NO +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 109.4 – 114.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +50 | NO: Missing Zion Williamson −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +152 Elo | MIN 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.3 | Points scored | 110.019th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.3 | Points allowed | 101.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.0 | Margin | +8.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 107.819th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 99.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.225th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+4 Elo- Zion Williamson personal−6 Elo
Timberwolves
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.