Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Jrue HolidayRebounds11
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints38
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game109–114
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime109–114
- OT9.0Sam Hauser personal take foul109–114
- OT10.0Anthony Edwards defensive rebound109–114
- OT13.1Sam Hauser misses 28-foot three point jumper109–114
- OT15.1Sam Hauser enters the game for Al Horford109–114
- OT15.1Celtics Full timeout109–114
- OT16.0Jaden McDaniels makes 7-foot pullup jump shot109–114
- OT35.2Jayson Tatum makes 1-foot dunk (Al Horford assists)109–112
- OT38.0Anthony Edwards bad pass (Jayson Tatum steals)107–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:35Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotBOS 88 – 90 MIN · MIN 45% → 62% +17MIN 45% → 62%+17 pts
- Q42:52Jaylen Brown makes two point shotBOS 98 – 98 MIN · BOS 33% → 50% +16BOS 33% → 50%+16 pts
- Q42:00Jaylen Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 101 – 98 MIN · BOS 50% → 78% +28BOS 50% → 78%+28 pts
- Q41:41Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)BOS 101 – 101 MIN · MIN 20% → 50% +30MIN 20% → 50%+30 pts
- OT3:08Mike Conley makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)BOS 105 – 106 MIN · MIN 35% → 59% +24MIN 35% → 59%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.4 – 112.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | +56 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS 0 Elo | BOS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30126.4 | Points scored | 109.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 99.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+18.4 | Margin | +9.64th of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.1 | Offense rating | 109.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.2 | Defense rating | 99.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.5 | Pace | 99.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.