Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints22
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists5
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds8
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints31
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–123
- Q419.1Shake Milton makes driving layup95–123
- Q428.0Luka Samanic makes free throw 1 of 195–121
- Q428.0Jordan McLaughlin shooting foul94–121
- Q428.0Luka Samanic makes layup (Collin Sexton assists)94–121
- Q431.1Luka Samanic defensive rebound92–121
- Q435.0Shake Milton misses 24-foot three point jumper92–121
- Q440.0Simone Fontecchio makes layup (Omer Yurtseven assists)92–121
- Q449.1Collin Sexton offensive rebound90–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:44Talen Horton-Tucker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)UTAH 45 – 40 MIN · UTAH 47% → 55% +8UTAH 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q38:32Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)UTAH 60 – 62 MIN · MIN 54% → 63% +9MIN 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q36:50Karl-Anthony Towns makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)UTAH 66 – 69 MIN · MIN 57% → 66% +10MIN 57% → 66%+10 pts
- Q36:22Mike Conley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)UTAH 66 – 72 MIN · MIN 66% → 75% +9MIN 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q35:49Karl-Anthony Towns makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)UTAH 68 – 75 MIN · MIN 69% → 78% +8MIN 69% → 78%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 64%
- Fair odds
- MIN -152
- UTAH +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.2 – 114.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +27 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +97 Elo | MIN 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 105.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 100.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−3.7 | Margin | +5.08th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 105.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 100.21st of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.5 | Pace | 100.623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.