Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints30
- Cole AnthonyAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints22
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–113
- Q40.0Kelly Olynyk bad pass (Franz Wagner steals)115–113
- Q41.1Keyonte George enters the game for Talen Horton-Tucker115–113
- Q41.1Jazz Full timeout115–113
- Q41.1Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2115–113
- Q41.1Magic offensive team rebound114–113
- Q41.1Anthony Black misses free throw 1 of 2114–113
- Q41.1Anthony Black enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.114–113
- Q41.1Kelly Olynyk personal foul114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:57Jordan Clarkson makes 26-foot step back jumpshotORL 104 – 99 UTAH · UTAH 13% → 25% +12UTAH 13% → 25%+12 pts
- Q45:29Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Anthony Black assists)ORL 107 – 99 UTAH · ORL 77% → 88% +12ORL 77% → 88%+12 pts
- Q41:15Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)ORL 112 – 110 UTAH · UTAH 6% → 27% +21UTAH 6% → 27%+21 pts
- Q420.1Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)ORL 112 – 113 UTAH · UTAH 11% → 74% +63UTAH 11% → 74%+63 pts
- Q414.0Paolo Banchero makes driving layup (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 114 – 113 UTAH · ORL 22% → 77% +54ORL 22% → 77%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1
- UTAH 53%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -125
- ORL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.9 – 113.6 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −29 | +7 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +22 Elo | UTAH 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30105.8 | Points scored | 114.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30101.8 | Points allowed | 118.625th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −4.019th of 30 |
| 20th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30101.7 | Defense rating | 115.527th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.0 | Pace | 102.712th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.